Everyone is asking to see the finalist families of patterns for the US Army Camouflage Improvement Effort. We, as well as Military.com and Army Times asked the Army for access and the Army punted, giving us a couple of different dates, planning to bring us all in and show us the various finalists.

Unfortunately, the Army’s lawyers have determined that they do not have any rights to the patterns and through the PAO at PEO Soldier informed us that they would be unable to share them with us. Interestingly, they remain mum on sharing the sole US Army-sponsored entry, which to me is the most interesting, because it gives me insight into what direction they think this will go.

Our only alternative is to request that the finalists release the patterns to the press themselves. Some of the contenders are open to it and others are not. Early on, Army contracting officials gave the finalists the impression that public release of the patterns would be looked upon disfavorably. Obviously, this makes people nervous. It would be in everyone’s best interest to unveil all of the patterns at once. To keep a somewhat level playing field, if for no other reason. But that’s not going to happen. The companies that hold off only hurt themselves, and here’s why.

The Army will be forced to select a family of camouflage patterns that is a compromise. Yes, even a family of three patterns will be a compromise. It’s the nature of the program. In the camo business increased specificity equals decreased utility. The better a pattern performs in a particular environment, the more it works against the wearer in others. For example, there are different types of woodland environments. What works great in a jungle might not do so well in mountainous regions below the treeline. The same holds true for all military operating environments. Consequently, lots of patterns on the market are a good thing. From a commercial standpoint, more patterns mean more choices. The finalists are all the cream of the crop based on performance. The downselect has already demonstrated that and makes them very lucrative.

The various companies that entered the competition in the first place got a virtual copper mine, the finalists now have a silver mine and they are each vying for that veritable gold mine. I’ve been asked plenty what I think the winner’s submission is worth on the commercial market and I will tell you that its true value is incalculable. The problem is that this situation is unprecedented. Between commercial use of the patterns in both soft and hard goods, it could easily be worth Billions (yes, with a “b”) over the lifecycle of the Army’s use of the patterns. Which leads us to an interesting point.

The Army is going to pay the winner chump change compared to what this is really worth. It’s a great bargain for the American taxpayer but at the same time, they need to be cognizant of the stakes. This isn’t a typical PEO Soldier program. We’re treading into the world of ship and tank and aircraft procurements. And with it will come some of the same things we see with those programs.

Despite the intentions of PEO Soldier to make this more about science than fashion, in the end, the Army’s leadership is going to make its decision based on three factors; Cost, Performance, and Branding.

Cost
How much is it going to cost to field all of these new patterns and what does the Army’s budget look like?

Performance
Do the patterns perform as advertised? Do they conceal the Soldier?

Branding
Does the camouflage chosen portray a positive image for the Army? Does it make the wearer look like a Soldier?

These questions will be asked by the decision makers. There’s no getting around that. In the end, all three of these factors will be weighed against each of the families of patterns. A cost-benefit-analysis will be conducted and an edge of performance here vice an argument that there is already an ample investment in a similar pattern there combined with a question of whether a pattern “just looks funny” and you will have a decision. The final choice is going to be a compromise.

It’s in the finalists’ best interest to publicize their patterns and make their case as to why their offerings are the most appropriate. Even if they aren’t selected in the end, they’ve still got a good 18-24 months to cash in on that silver mine. The clock is ticking.